CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z TUE 22/04 - 06Z WED 23/04 2003
ISSUED: 21/04 20:37Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SCOTLAND, THE EASTERN BENELUX, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GERMANY, PARTS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL FRANCE, NORTHERN ITALY, NORTHWESTERN IBERIA AND SOUTHWESTERN IBERIA AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERN POLAND, NORTHERN SLOVAKIA AND EXTREME WESTERN BELARUS.

SYNOPSIS

THERE IS A WEAK FLOW OVER MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL EUROPE. A WEST-EAST ORIENTED TROUGH OVER BRITAIN MOVES NORTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN IBERIA. A WEAK, ALMOST STATIONARY, UPPER LOW IS POSITIONED OVER WESTERN BELARUS.

DISCUSSION

...WESTERN GERMANY, EASTERN BENELUX, SOUTHERN GERMANY...
STRONG INSOLATION WILL ALLOW SOME LATENT INSTABLITY TO FORM IN A BROAD AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF THE ALPS. THE STORMS WILL BE QUITE HIGH-BASED IN PLACES AND SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS MAY FORM. ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION MANAGES TO ORGANISE, GUSTS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED THE SEVERE LIMIT OF 50 KTS. ALSO, SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR THAT APPROACHES 2 CM IN PLACES. HOWEVER, SEVERE EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOCALISED TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK.

...SOUTHWESTERN IBERIA...
MOST THUNDERY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY GIVEN LOW WIND SHEAR NEAR THE AREA OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY. EXCEPTION IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LANDSPOUTS UNDER COLD UPPER LOW GIVEN LOW LCL-HEIGHTS AND STRONG SOLAR HEATING.

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